Global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 69 per cent by 2040 to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100
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A UN Environment Programme report shows how urgently cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are needed to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around 2050 is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100.
To reach this goal, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to follow stringent cuts: reducing by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. To put this in perspective, fully implementing all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only five to eight per cent by 2030, and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
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‘Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,’ said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
If current policies continue, global warming could reach within this century and rise further thereafter. If all NDCs are reached and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2These. These outcomes are worse than last year’s projections because of revised estimates of historical emissions and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have little to no impact on these projections.
The report’s authors acknowledge that returning to or below 1.5°C is achievable, especially given growing evidence of the success of climate policies around the world, such as carbon capture and trade schemes and carbon taxes. However, these successes remain concentrated in particular sectors, countries and time periods – so getting onto a 1.5°C pathway requires extending, sustaining and replicating them.
Limiting global warming to below 1.5°C will reduce the impacts of climate change. Otherwise, extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and heavy rainfall and flooding will become increasingly frequent. Beyond this, multiple climate tipping points could be breached past 1.5°C, such as the breakdown of ocean circulation systems, thawing of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef systems.
The world is already seeing the effects of a warming planet. In 2024 alone, disasters triggered a record 45.8 million internal displacements, 99.5 per cent of which were caused by weather-related hazards such as droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods.
