From South Korea to Lithuania, discover the five OECD countries where fertility rates are sharply decreasing compared to 1950 levels
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The magic number for fertility rates is 2.1 – the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. For a country’s population to remain stable, the fertility rate must be 2.1. If it’s any lower, the population will fall – any higher, and it’ll increase.
Across 37 out of 38 OECD countries, fertility rates are below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain a population’s size. And across the world, fertility rates are collapsing faster than expected.
But where exactly are the rates the lowest? Read on to find out…
5) Japan – 1.2
Japan’s fertility rate has plummeted from 3.6 in 1950 to 1.2 in 2025. According to government data, the number of births reached 686,061 in 2024, a decline of 5.7 per cent from the previous year.
Japan’s fertility rate has been falling since 1973, dropping below one million in 2016 and below 800,000 in 2022. If current trends continue, Japan’s population of around 124 million is set to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40 per cent of the population will be 65 or over.
Reasons for such declining numbers include high living costs, stagnant wages and a strong work culture – all of which deter many young people from starting families.
Methods have been unveiled by the government in order to tackle declining birth rates, such as an expansion of child allowance and free high school education, and a guarantee that couples will receive 100 per cent of their pay when they take parental leave simultaneously. However, these attempts have been met with little uptake, with statistics showing people continue to marry later in life – a trend that results in much smaller families.
4) Lithuania – 1.2
Lithuania’s fertility rate has dropped from 2.7 in 1950 to 1.2 in 2025. In 2015, more than 30,000 children were born in the nation, but almost 11,000 fewer births were recorded in 2024.
Its current population stands at 2.8 million people, with more than 20 per cent of residents above retirement age.
The district of Rokiskis is particularly notable – deaths outnumbered births five to one. Marriage and divorce rates were nearly identical, a trend that locals have attributed to a combination of financial pressures, low wages and depopulation in rural areas.
In addition, individuals have cited the fear of war as a factor for not having children.
A mix of economic pressures, such as high living and housing costs, social shifts – such as women pursuing careers and having children later – as well as demographic factors like an ageing population, all combine to produce Lithuania’s substantially smaller 2025 fertility rates compared to 1950 levels.
3) Italy – 1.2
At number three is Italy, whose fertility rate has dropped from 2.5 in 1950 to 1.2 in 2025. So low is its fertility rate that researchers have coined it a ‘demographic winter’.
For the first time, in 2023, the number of births in a year fell below 400,000. The number of deaths in Italy now exceeds the number of births – 12 deaths for every seven births.
According to professor of demography at Luiss University, Maria Rita Testa, the country could face an economic ‘dark age’ as the number of people entering the workforce declines.
‘In our pension system, which is a pay-as-you-go system, where the current workers pay for the pension benefits of the current retired people, this will create a big challenge and burden,’ Testa said.
Since the economic crisis of 2008, the birth rate in Italy has been declining – even despite plans to provide monthly payments to parents per child born.
2) Chile – 1.1
At number two is Chile – its fertility rate has dropped from 4.8 in 1950 to 1.1 in 2025. In the last decade alone, fertility rates have fallen by 29 per cent. Now, it is the country with the lowest fertility rate in the Americas.
Several reasons to explain such a downward trend include Chilean women gaining greater access to education, particularly since universities became free in 2008, as well as women entering the workforce in higher numbers. A lack of state support in areas such as childcare is another factor.
According to the National Statistics Institute, Chile’s birth rate will continue to fall in the coming years. Even with an increase in immigration, numbers are still set to plummet.
1) South Korea – 0.7
Although many developed countries are seeing birth rates fall, South Korea is experiencing the most severe of declines. In 50 years’ time, the number of working-age people will have halved, and nearly half the population will be older than 65.
The nation’s fertility rate has fallen from 6.1 in 1950 to 0.7 in 2025.
Politicians have declared such a scenario as a ‘national emergency’, with governments across the last 20 years throwing around £226billion at the problem, from incentives such as free taxis to subsidised housing and monthly handouts.
A combination of institutional, structural and cultural factors contributes to South Korea’s ultra-low fertility, such as labour market inequality, a family-unfriendly work culture and the high costs of raising children. As well as this, widespread pessimism and young people’s lack of confidence in the future are considered to be major drivers of falling marriage and fertility rates.
