In a low emissions scenario, 39 per cent more land would be burned per year by the end of the century compared to average today
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As hot, dry, and windy conditions increase across Europe, a new study has revealed how such weather patterns could substantially expand the area of land affected by wildfires.
Led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, the study found that, in a low-emissions scenario, 39 per cent more land would be burned per year by the end of the century than today’s average. In a high emissions scenario, that figure would jump to around 192 per cent.
Researchers compared projected annual burned area for the years between 2070 and 2100 with modelled results for the period 2000-2030 to reach their conclusions.
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‘Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C,’ said lead author of the study, published in Global Change Biology, Maik Billing.
‘But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires,’ continued Billing.
Continued improvements in fire management have the potential to reduce the area burned by 92 per cent in a 1.8°C warming future and by 72 per cent at around 3.6°C.
‘We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more. If Europe increases investment in wildfire management: training fire crews, proper equipment, good coordination, etc., our projections show that this can make a significant difference,’ said study co-author Thomas Hickler.
‘But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down, and we do not know yet where this point is. The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past.’
This year, a severe wildfire season has ravaged Europe, with around 550,000 hectares burned across the EU as of 12 August 2026 – about two and a half times the 20-year average for this time of year.
Research associate at the World Resources Institute’s Global Nature Watch, Sarah Carter, who was not involved in the study, said that Europe is now the fastest-warming continent on the planet, with southern regions experiencing pronounced and devastating wildfires.
