New study shows choices we make in next decade will determine Antarctica’s climate and environmental fate for centuries
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The climate crisis is warming Antarctica with potentially disastrous consequences. Now, scientists have modelled the best- and worst-case scenarios for climate change in Antarctica, demonstrating just how high the stakes are — and how much harm can still be prevented.
The scientists focused on the Antarctic Peninsula, a centre for research, tourism and fishing, which is both very well studied and vulnerable to anthropogenic changes.
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‘Though Antarctica is far away, changes here will impact the rest of the world through changes in sea level, oceanic and atmospheric connections and circulation changes. Changes in the Antarctic do not stay in the Antarctic,’ said lead author Professor Bethan Davies of Newcastle University.
Scientists used scenarios which estimate future emissions to model outcomes for the Antarctic Peninsula: low emissions (1.8°C temperature rise compared to preindustrial levels by 2100), medium-high emissions (3.6°C), and very high emissions (4.4°C). They examined eight aspects of the peninsula’s environment affected by climate change: marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land and sea ice, ice shelves, the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere, and extreme events such as heatwaves.
‘In 2019, we demonstrated how the Antarctic Peninsula would be affected by the 1.5°C climate scenario,’ said co-author Professor Martin Siegert of the University of Exeter. ‘Now, in 2026, we share what exceeding 1.5°C looks like for the Antarctic Peninsula, which is a frightening prospect.’
In higher emissions scenarios, scientists found that the Southern Ocean will get hotter faster. Warmer ocean waters will erode ice on land and at sea – and the higher temperatures get, the more likely ice shelves are to collapse, driving sea level rise.
Under the highest emissions scenario, sea ice coverage could fall by 20 per cent, devastating species that rely on it — such as krill, an important prey for whales and penguins — and amplifying ocean warming worldwide. Higher ocean warming would also stress ecosystems and contribute to extreme weather.
It remains difficult to predict how animal species will respond to such changes, but scientists expect that, under very high-emissions scenarios, many species will move south to escape higher temperatures. Warm-blooded predators may cope with temperature changes, but if their prey can’t, they will starve.
Already, as Geographical reported back in2024, seabirds could be left reeling from a warming Antarctica. Declines in Antarctic sea ice predicted under climate change could exacerbate the already unsustainable human impacts these populations face as they hunt for food.
The continent has also begun to ‘green’ – a study back in 2024 found vegetation cover across the Peninsula has increased from less than one square kilometre in 1986, to almost 12 square kilometres in 2021, affected by the rising temperatures across the planet.
Researchers themselves are also not immune from the consequences of climate change. Damage to infrastructure is making it more dangerous to carry out research, so it becomes more difficult to collect the data needed to forecast the future effects of climate change.
‘At the moment, we’re on track for a medium to medium-high emissions future,’ said Davies.
‘What concerns me most about the higher emissions scenario is just how permanent the changes could be. These changes would be irreversible on any human timescale. It would be very hard to regrow the glaciers and bring back the wildlife that makes Antarctica special. If we don’t make changes now, our great-grandchildren will have to live with the consequences.’
