While the US retreats from climate leadership, China is investing billions in renewables and expanding its influence abroad
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A few hundred years ago, wind-powered naval dominance granted Portugal, Spain and Venice their economic supremacy. In the 19th century, rich coal seams fuelled the steam engines, factories and railways that built the British Empire’s might. Later on, vast domestic oil reserves (in addition to military and diplomatic control over global petroleum flows) lit up the so-called American Century.
If history is a guide, we might be witnessing the dawn of the Chinese Century.
Willingly or unwillingly, the world is destined to decarbonise its economy. The climatic imperative – still so fuzzy and uncertain, as deeply divided UN countries meet this month in Brazil for COP30 – may possibly gain strength in years to come, in line with a forecast increase in extreme events. Much more concretely, though, new utility-scale solar and wind power are already cheaper than new coal or gas power plants. Advancements in clean energy technologies have outpaced expectations, and they will probably continue to do so.
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China is already the undisputed leader of this trend. The People’s Republic is adding more solar and wind capacity each year than the next ten countries combined. Last year alone, it invested nearly US$300billion (£237billion) in renewable energy. It makes more than 80 per cent of the world’s solar panels, the majority of wind turbines, and more than 70 per cent of lithium-ion batteries – not to mention its control over the refining of minerals (such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths) that are essential for carbon-free energy technologies.
The USA – the incumbent contender for global dominance – is practically moving in the opposite direction. The Department of Energy has just cancelled more than US$13billion in green energy subsidies originally pledged under Joe Biden. Permits and leases for new wind projects (onshore and offshore) have been paused.
A coal plant in Michigan that was slated for closure is still running. In reality, though, clean-tech investments are still growing at a fast pace – courtesy of Chinese R&D, which has driven solar panel and turbine prices down immensely over the last two decades.
Obviously, global dominance requires more than just energy – it also demands diplomatic clout. Here, while the USA has backtracked on international aid, China is spreading its political wings. In the past four years, Chinese green investments abroad have reached ‘at least US$227billion across 461 projects in 53 countries,’ notes a report from the policy lab Net Zero. In today’s money, that’s more than four years’ worth of America’s post-Second World War Marshall Plan.
Xi Jinping just announced an upgrade to China’s nationally determined contributions during a surprise virtual attendance at the UN General Assembly. He pledged for the first time an absolute emissions reduction target (seven to ten per cent down from peak by 2035) and a further increase in renewable generation to 3.6 terawatts (more than six times the 2020 level).
‘Low-carbon transformation is the trend of our times. Despite some countries going against the trend, the international community should stay on the right track,’ he said. On the other hand, Donald Trump – speaking at the same venue – dismissed the climate crisis as ‘a con job’ perpetrated by ‘stupid’ scientists. The difference between the two could not be starker.
However, the problem is that China, with its many coal power plants, has been the largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases for nearly 20 years. Currently, it accounts for around 35 per cent of the world’s total. This clashes with its status under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Here it’s considered a developing nation without any emission-cutting obligations.
Such a status derives from the principle that those who first started emitting carbon dioxide should bear most of the burden. However, China’s cumulative historical emissions have just surpassed those of the EU, making it the second-largest historical emitter after the USA. It’s probably time to revise this anachronism.
President Xi Jinping has the chance to lead the global decarbonisation process. For starters, he has the opportunity to save the entire UN climate process. If COP30 in Brazil were to fall flat after three dismal summits in Egypt, Dubai and Azerbaijan, the UNFCCC’s role will be seriously questioned. Moreover, only a committed China can prop up the EU’s efforts, whose Green Deal is under political attack at home.
It’s true that China has the habit of under-promising and over-delivering – it pledged to reach peak emissions before 2030, but many analysts suggest this has already happened. However, a hotter and hotter planet urgently needs leadership.
The USA never led the way and, by leaving the Paris Agreement next January, has already abdicated. If Xi were willing to alter China’s status under the UNFCCC and take the lead without quirks or tricks, our common climate destiny would be different. It could be enough to usher in a new century.
