Extreme weather conditions similar to deluge that caused train crash in Scotland are 15 to 20 per cent more likely in future due to climate change
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Extreme weather conditions similar to that which contributed to a fatal train crash five years ago will be more common due to climate change, a new study published in the journal Environmental Research Climate has found.
Intense deluges, like the one that preceded a derailment in Carmont, Scotland, are between 15 to 20 per cent more likely in future thanks to a warming environment. If the world warms by more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels, the likelihood of such devastating weather patterns would increase by 30 to 40 per cent. According to experts, more frequent extreme rainfall events will increase the risk of flash floods in urban areas and cause more damage to infrastructure.
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To come to their conclusions, scientists from the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences and School of Physics and Astronomy and the Met Office examined data from weather radars and climate models to calculate the extent to which global warming changed the intensity, frequency and distribution of rainfall at and near Carmont.
The team discovered on the morning of the crash, a huge torrent of rainfall lasting for hours fell close to the crash site, followed by another severe downpour just one hour prior to the fatal disaster occurring, which killed three people and injured six.
Previous research has shown the earth’s atmosphere and oceans are currently one to 1.5 degrees warmer compared to conditions in the late nineteenth century. This poses a serious risk of heavy rainfall, as a warmer atmosphere can hold – and release – more water.
The cause of the Carmont derailment was gravel washed onto tracks due to heavy rain, alongside an improperly built drain which could not cope with the subsequent volume of water. As well as this, investigators highlighted problems with operational procedures in dealing with the effects of the severe weather.
Is extreme weather getting worse in the UK?
The short answer is yes. Last month, the Met Office announced changing weather patterns mean the UK now experiences a ‘notably different’ climate to what it was just several decades ago.
According to the latest assessment, the nation currently has many more hot days and fewer extremely cold nights. Such a trend is self-evident with the numerous sweltering heatwaves the UK has experienced in the last few months alone.
As well as this, climate change is bringing with it more severe weather events, such as flooding and storms.
Behind all these weather patterns is one culprit: the continual rise in average temperatures driven by climate change. Since the Industrial Revolution, global temperatures have risen by more than 1.3C, with humans continuing to release harmful and noxious greenhouse gases into the atmosphere through relentless polluting activities.
