Discover how AI is being utilised to reveal the full scale of war on Ukraine’s agricultural sector
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Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has systematically targeted Ukraine’s vast and vital agricultural industry. This approach was publicly articulated in April 2022, when Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, described food as Russia’s ‘silent weapon’. The invasion brought immediate destruction to Ukraine’s farms and infrastructure, severely threatening its role as a global breadbasket and creating far-reaching consequences for worldwide food security.
To understand the full scale of the impact on Ukraine’s farmland so far, Project Expedite Justice (PEJ) – an NGO that investigates international crimes – partnered with EOS Data Analytics (EOSDA) to create a precise map of the agricultural damage caused by the war.
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EOSDA is a Ukrainian-founded company specialising in AI-powered satellite imagery and land analysis. From tracking crop health in Canada to monitoring land change in Colombia, its technology provides crucial insights for optimising and predicting crop yields, detecting tree cover and deforestation, and mitigating current and future risks posed by climate change. ‘Sugarcane, for example, needs consistent water and fertilisers during the growing season for development,’ explains Oleksii Neskorovnyi, a business analyst at EOSDA.
When Mexico’s 2023–24 sugarcane crop significantly underperformed, EOSDA used remote sensing to analyse farms across the country, revealing that climate change had been a key factor in the year’s poor growth. ‘Using climate models, we can help farmers to understand whether they should expect a decrease or increase in yields in certain areas over the next ten years,’ he adds.
Since the start of the war, EOSDA has also worked to quantify the loss of Ukrainian resources. After Russia bombed Kakhovka Dam in June 2023, releasing 18 cubic kilometres of water (enough to fill the Grand Canyon four times over) and flooding the surrounding area, the company helped PEJ to produce a report that was presented to the International Criminal Court.
To calculate the amount of Ukrainian farmland under Russian occupation, and the level of agricultural activity there, Neskorovnyi explains that EOSDA used a machine learning model. This was trained on data from previous years and applied to satellite imagery from Sentinel-2, which have a resolution of ten metres. This approach allowed them to classify different crops across all of Ukraine, including in occupied territories, from 2020 to 2024.
The findings were stark. The PEJ report, supported by EOSDA’s data, revealed that by 2024, Ukraine had lost 3.5 million hectares of arable land – an area larger than Belgium – to Russian occupation. Another 1.6 million hectares of arable land remain uncultivated in Ukraine-controlled territories due to ongoing military activity. The greatest losses were observed in the Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, key agricultural regions that have become frontline territories.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, the agricultural sector contributed ten per cent to Ukraine’s GDP, employed 14 per cent of its labour force, and accounted for 41 per cent of its export revenue. Earlier this year, Ukraine’s minister of agriculture, Vitalii Koval, announced that the war had resulted in agricultural losses of around US$80 billion.
This figure includes not only direct damage to fields, crops and agricultural equipment, but also indirect damage caused by disrupted logistics, increased fertiliser and fuel costs, and the decontamination of farmland littered with mines and unexploded munitions. As a result, more than a third of rural Ukrainian households have experienced a significant decrease in income, and an estimated five million Ukrainians are facing food insecurity.
Experts from the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies warn that ongoing ceasefire talks, which frequently exclude Ukraine’s direct participation, have so far produced proposals that could bring significant disadvantages for the country’s agricultural sector – and further benefits for Russia. Between 2023 and 2024, EOSDA analysis reveals, about 16 million tonnes of crops were harvested in areas under Russian control.
