China’s population is set to shrink by more than 150 million by 2050, while the proportion of seniors will keep on rising. What will the nation’s future shape up to be?
By James Rose
In late July, the Chinese government announced a dramatic policy shift: parents will now receive annual payments of 3,600 yuan (around $500) for the first three years of a child’s life. For a country that once enforced a rigid one-child policy with an iron grip, this is a striking reversal. The urgency behind the move is clear—China is facing a looming demographic crisis.
According to the UN, China’s population is expected to shrink by over 150 million by 2050—and by a staggering 750 million by the end of the century. That’s equivalent to losing the entire populations of the UK, EU, and Russia combined—a collapse unprecedented in modern history. But it’s not just a question of fewer people—it’s a question of older people.
China’s population is aging rapidly. Seniors over 65 currently make up 14 per cent of the population, but by 2050, that figure is expected to reach 30 per cent, among the highest in the world. Even more striking, the number of people aged over 80 will more than triple—from 37 million today to 132 million.
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This powerful combination of aging and population decline presents serious challenges—not only for China’s economy and society but also for global geopolitics.
The roots of China’s demographic crisis lie in its history of strict population control. In the 1950s and ’60s, the Communist Party encouraged large families, believing that more children would fuel national growth. The policy worked—too well. By the 1970s, the government feared that population growth had become unsustainable, threatening long term economic development.
Initial measures to curb births were relatively subtle: raising the minimum marriage age and promoting longer intervals between children. But in 1980, China formally introduced its infamous one-child policy. It remained in effect until 2016 and was often enforced harshly. Human Rights Watch stated that over the years, the Chinese government subjected “millions of women to forced contraception, forced sterilisation, and forced abortion.”
Meanwhile, life expectancy in China soared, driven by rapid economic progress. In 1980, it was just 64 years; today, it stands at 78.
These two forces—declining birth rates and rising longevity—have fundamentally reshaped China’s demographic pyramid. The base is shrinking as fewer babies are born, while the top is expanding as people live longer than ever before.
The consequences are far-reaching. China’s meteoric economic rise was driven by a massive, low-cost labor force. Now, that working-age population is shrinking—leading to fewer workers to drive production and fewer consumers to sustain demand.
Demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison warns that China could be headed for long-term stagnation, similar to Japan. Low fertility rates and a shortage of young adults contributed to Japan’s real estate crash in the early 1990s, ushering in its ‘lost decade’ of economic growth. ‘The crisis that is brewing in China,’ Fuxian claims, ‘is more severe than the one Japan faced’ because China’s real estate bubble is much larger and its fertility rate even lower.
China’s pension system is also under mounting pressure. With fewer workers supporting a growing elderly population, the system is buckling. In 2019, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned that the country’s basic pension fund could run out by 2035. The consequences could include widespread poverty and social unrest.
This has also created a vicious cycle. According to Bloomberg, tens of millions of young Chinese are now refusing to pay into the pension system. Many of those interviewed said they don’t believe they’ll ever see any payout when they retire and therefore see little point in contributing. It’s never a good sign for a country’s future when its youth lose faith in the long-term stability of the system.
The geopolitical implications are just as significant. China’s vast population and sustained economic growth have powered its rise as the world’s second superpower—the only country currently capable of rivaling the United States. Over the past decade, China has sought to extend its influence across the region, staking claims in the South China Sea and intensifying pressure on Taiwan.
But as its population declines and ages, China’s economic and diplomatic power may also begin to wane. Today, it accounts for 17 per cent of the global population. By 2050, that share will fall to 13 per cent, and by 2100, to just 6.5 per cent.
Of particular interest is China’s evolving relationship with India. In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. While China’s population is set for long-term decline, India’s is still growing. India’s economy is now outpacing China’s, and in 2023, it became just the fourth country to soft-land a probe on the Moon—potentially setting the stage for a new space race in the region.
Despite both being part of the BRICS bloc, India and China have long had a tense relationship. The two nations fought a war in the 1960s over their disputed 3,000km border, and tensions flared again in 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a violent clash with Chinese forces. The relationship between a rising India and a declining China could become one of the defining dynamics of the 21st century.
The Chinese government is well aware of its looming demographic collapse and the serious consequences it could have. In 2016, it formally ended the one-child policy and has since introduced several measures to encourage childbirth—including, as mentioned, offering cash incentives to parents.
But these efforts may have come too late. Once social norms around smaller families take hold, they are notoriously difficult to reverse. Governments around the world have tried to raise fertility rates—with little success, even spending large sums of money.
Of course, trying to look into the future is a very tricky business, especially as we get further away from the present. Demographers are always keen to emphasise that their figures are projections, based on extrapolating from current trends. They are not predictions. Unexpected events like Covid or a major recession or conflict can cause things to change rapidly.
Nonetheless, as it currently stands, the very policy that once powered China’s rise may now threaten its future. When it comes to social engineering, one lesson stands out: be careful what you wish for.
