A new study predicts heat-related deaths will increase across the continent unless more is done to mitigate global warming
A new study in the Lancet Public Health journal paints a stark picture of Europe’s future under current climate policies. The research warns that heat-related deaths on the continent could triple by the end of the century, with southern regions bearing the brunt of the impact.
The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger climate action to protect vulnerable populations from the escalating risks of extreme temperatures. In recent years, Europe has experienced a series of scorching summers, leading to a surge in heat-related mortality. The elderly, in particular, are at heightened risk, and with the continent’s population aging, this trend is expected to intensify.
Previous studies on heat-related deaths in Europe have often been limited in scope, focusing on individual countries or regions. This new research, however, provides a comprehensive analysis across the entire continent, examining the predicted impact of climate change on regional mortality rates.
| Country | Current heat-related deaths | Projected heat-related deaths |
| United Kingdom | 1,258 | 7,931 |
| France | 3,061 | 13,564 |
| Spain | 4,414 | 20,194 |
| Ireland | 30 | 563 |
| Norway | 94 | 682 |
According to the study, under a 3°C global warming scenario – an upper estimate based on current climate policies – heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by 2100. While cold-related deaths are currently much higher, they are projected to decline slightly over the century. ‘Our analysis reveals that the ratio of cold-heat deaths will shift dramatically over the course of this century, with those attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and surging in some areas,’ says Juan-Carlos Ciscar, of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission. ‘At the same time, cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall.’
The study analysed data from 1,368 regions across 30 European countries, modelling mortality risks for different age groups and climate scenarios. It found that while cold-related deaths are currently highest in Eastern Europe, heat-related deaths are concentrated in Southern Europe. However, the study predicts a significant increase in heat-related deaths across all regions by the end of the century.
The authors warn that the impact of climate change on health will be particularly severe in regions with aging populations and limited infrastructure. Spain, Italy, Greece, and parts of France are expected to be particularly vulnerable. ‘Our study identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is set to drastically increase,’ says David García-León, also of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission. ‘There is a critical need for targeted policies to protect these areas and the most vulnerable members of society.’
While the study acknowledges some limitations, such as its focus on urban areas, it provides a compelling warning of the potential consequences of inaction on climate change. As the world grapples with the growing threat of extreme heat, the findings of this research underscore the urgent need for global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build climate resilience.
