Two studies raise fears that global warming could lead to millions of extra heat-related deaths in coming years
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It might be winter in the northern hemisphere and the short, cold, grey and wet days might be making you dream fondly of long, hot summer days at the beach, but new studies may put a cold sponge on such thoughts.
Since October two new studies have been released that raise fears that millions of people around the world could die from heat-related illnesses in the coming years.
The first study, which was published in the journal Circulation on 30 October, predicted that in the USA, cardiovascular-related deaths due to increasing days of extreme heat (which in this case is above 32 degrees Celsius or 90 Fahrenheit) would rise 2.6 times between 2036 and 2065 as a countrywide average. The worst impacted groups would be those over the age of 65 and black adults.
The study team looked at the county-level data from the contiguous 48 states between May and September 2008-2019. They found that the heat index crossed the 32 degrees Celcius mark about 54 days on average each summer, leading to a nationwide annual average of 1651 cardiovascular heat-related deaths. Then, by analysing forecasted environmental and population changes between the years 2036 and 2065, the team concluded that the heat index mark would be crossed between 71 to 80 times per year and that this would lead to 4,320 annual average cardiovascular heat-related deaths.
And why would black adults and those over 65 years of age be the most vulnerable? Because, so the study claims many people within these two categories have underlying health issues or face socioeconomic barriers that can have a negative impact on their health. Such as living in areas that absorb more heat or because they don’t have access to air-conditioning.
The second report, The Lancet Countdown, which was published on 28 November and drew on the expertise of 114 scientists and health workers from 52 worldwide research institutions and UN agencies, took a global view and the conclusions they came up with were no more comforting.
The study shows that if average global temperatures rise two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (and we are already on course towards this), then an additional 524.9 million people are expected to suffer from food insecurity and that there will be an increase in infectious diseases such as dengue fever. All of this means that global heat deaths could rise by 370 per cent if action is not taken to limit the impacts of global warming.
And, suddenly, winter doesn’t seem so bad.
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