London, Essex and Kent are hotspots more vulnerable to hotter, drier weather, which makes the ground shrink and drags house foundations down
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Millions of homes in the UK – particularly across London, Kent and Essex – are at risk of climate-related subsidence, according to a new report by the British Geological Survey (BGS).
Hotter and drier conditions – made more frequent under climate change – cause the ground beneath houses to shrink and drag foundations down with it, in a process known as shrink-swell ground movement.
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New BGS data projects that by 2070, more than 4.2 million properties could be affected by shrink-swell subsidence under a high-emissions scenario; around 1.8 million properties under a medium-emissions scenario; and 500,000 properties under a low-emissions scenario.
The most susceptible regions, according to the BGS, are found in highly populated parts of London, such as the northern and central boroughs, including Islington, Barnet and Camden, as well as in Kent and the south-east of England.
Subsidence-related insurance claims are already becoming commonplace in the UK. In the first six months of 2025 alone, they totalled £153million. Fixing the issue of a sinking house can be costly, leading to increased insurance premiums, decreased house prices, and in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property.
With climate change projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become more frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to sinking is rising.
‘Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue,’ said BGS scientist Anna Harrison.
Scientists say there are ways that planners, owners and developers can limit the future effects of a sinking property. These include taking specialist advice before starting major building work and avoiding planting trees with larger root systems close to properties.
Where is subsidence worst around the world?
Many sinking cities are found in Asia, including Jakarta, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Shanghai. Other sinking cities can be found in Africa, including Lagos in Nigeria.
One of the most common causes of subsidence in these cities is groundwater extraction, especially in areas where households and industries drill too many wells or boreholes. Extracting excessive amounts of water over extended periods compresses the soil, causing the surface and buildings to sink. For example, now almost half of Jakarta sits below sea level, making it particularly vulnerable to further subsidence-related threats.
These cities have tried several measures to counter the effects of their sinking cities, including building walls and sand barriers along coastlines to prevent flooding from the sea. However, as walls get higher, a ‘bowl effect’ can occur in which rain and river water become trapped and prevented from flowing back into the sea.
