As the haggling in this year’s COP heats up, Marco Magrini, wonders what the final resolution will include
COP28’s president Sultan Al Jaber had, as was revealed this week, privately said that there is ‘no science’ suggesting that a phase-out of fossil fuels is indispensable to save the planet.
No, he then replies to media reports, ‘I believe that a phase-down and a phase-out of fossil fuel is inevitable.’
Oh wait, there’s another leak about what’s going on behind the scenes. A leaked letter from OPEC Secretary-General reveals that OPEC recommended member countries never to accept any wording against fossil fuels in the final resolution. The final resolution according to UN rules, must be voted unanimously by all the parties.
Yet, Al Jaber – CEO of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, an OPEC member – is still adamantly says he pushing forward for a ‘historical’ victory for the climate.
Never has a COP presidency been so controversial, no doubt because of the weird conflict of interest Al Jaber holds, officiating with one hand at the world’s top summit on decarbonisation while planning more oil drilling with the other.
However, there are a few commentators and even climate activists suggesting (or at least hoping) that the president with a double hat may turn out to be the right person to connect the interests of the oil industry with those of the world. The final verdict is, anyway, close at hand.
In theory, COP28 should come to a conclusion by Tuesday afternoon. It is unlikely to happen. Very rarely a Conference of the Parties has closed on time, and never when there was some substantial bargaining at stake – as it happens to be the case this time in Dubai.
The draft deal includes a range of options. Probably the most contentious passage ranges from agreeing to a ‘phase-out of fossil fuels in line with best available science’, to phasing out ‘unabated fossil fuels’, and to including no mention of fossil fuels at all. Much of the diplomatic battle currently underway in Dubai revolves around this passage.
• A ‘phase-out of fossil fuels’, as unacceptable as it is for OPEC, would be a great result. ‘In line with best available science’ would imply an extraordinarily swift goodbye to oil, gas and coal.
• The idea behind ‘unabated fossil fuels’ is to burn coal or gas while capturing the carbon emissions before they reach the atmosphere and store them somewhere underground. Being unproven and costly at a scale, such technology does not practically exist.
• As strange as it may seem, the words ’fossil fuels’ never appeared in a COP resolution for 26 years, until COP26 in Glasgow. This is to say that the odds of having no mention of the fossil culprits at all are not zero.
We wait to see what the COP run by the man wearing two hats, can up with.
