Marco Magrini considers whether this really is the beginning of the end for carbon-based energy
In the hottest year in recorded history, the world’s top conclave on climate matters has finally called on ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.’ It is a far cry from the ‘phase-out of fossil fuels’ that many had hoped. Yet, when COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber gavelled out the final Global Stocktake document, the assembly (well, most of it) burst into a standing ovation. As you would expect, Al Jaber called the decision ‘historic’ and consequently labelled it the ‘United Arab Emirates Consensus.’
Almost probably, historians of a hotter future won’t give too much importance to what happened in the year 2023. It was very warm, yet followed by warmer years. And perhaps they will find risible, if not laughable, that COP28 identified fossil fuels as the culprits of that very warming only after 28 years of frantic negotiations and almost two centuries after science had discovered the chemical and physical properties of some of the heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.
That being said, COP28 can be considered a success as it made a step forward instead of ending up as a total failure – as seemed likely. It has been widely reported that the Saudi delegation didn’t applaud, which is considered a win over the OPEC cartel’s opposition to any mention of fossil fuels in the text. The world is at least committed to changing its own destiny. It could be the beginning of a turnaround in the decarbonisation process. It could.
The act of ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems’ is unlikely to turn into a stampede. The approved text prescribes that such transition must be conducted ‘in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.’ Restricting it to energy systems implies that industrial fossil fuel usage is not contemplated by the agreement, not to mention fossil fuels for transportation.
Of course, there are positive details in the agreement, such as the desirable ‘tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030,’ or the inclusion of ‘enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030’ among other common aspirations.
Here is the point. All these resolutions are fundamentally aspirational. First of all, because the final document ‘calls on Parties to contribute to these global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches,’ in the footsteps of the Paris Agreement. Secondly, it contains several loopholes that nations and fossil fuel producers – private or State-owned – can exploit from a sort of à la carte menu. ‘Abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage,’ generally considered unproven (and an old trick to buy some time), have made their way into the text. And the prescription to ‘phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies (…) as soon as possible,’ albeit them being at an outrageous 1.4 trillion US dollars a year, leaves the door open to many self-serving interpretations of the adjective ‘inefficient.’
Commentators, scientists, activists and politicians are somewhat divided into calling the UAE Consensus a decent compromise or an utter disaster. ’This COP will mark the beginning of the end of fossil fuels,’ said a wishful-thinking spokesperson for the European Commission. However, Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UNFCCC, the organism behind every COP, reminded that ’we are currently headed for just under 3 degrees’ of temperature increase. In other words, the UAE Consensus’s promise to stay ‘with the science’ and ’in line with 1.5 °C pathways’ is already broken.
The harsh reality is that, after three decades of diplomatic fights over the wording of common proclamations, fossil fuel consumption never stopped raising. According to the International Energy Agency’s latest forecast, global coal consumption will decline by 13.5 per cent by 2030, but gas and oil will still be rising. This is exactly why an emergency deal was needed.
It is not 2023 that will go into history. It will be the year – who knows which one – when fossil fuel consumption peaks, and starts rapidly descending, on its way into oblivion.
