Discover the key waterways for LNG transport and how the functioning of the modern economy is rooted in physical geographies vulnerable to geopolitical forces
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Predominantly used for electricity and residential heating, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is cooled to about -162°C. Condensing into a liquid, it reduces its volume by about 600 times and enables local storage and global shipment via tanker ships.
LNG markets rely on the safe passage through just a few narrow waterways. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict with Iran has severely impacted LNG transport. With a lack of plentiful alternative routes for LNG transport, it has led to substantial supply delays and higher shipping costs, resulting in increased global energy prices.
As important as the Strait of Hormuz is, it is not the only key pathway for LNG. Using data from the US Energy Information Administration, discover the fragile waterways which sustain the trade of this valuable asset.
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The Strait of Hormuz
Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and despite being just 30 miles wide at its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz is the primary export route for LNG produced in Qatar. It usually accounts for about 20 per cent of global LNG trade – equalling 11.4 billion cubic feet per day – making it the single most critical waterway. This is why the conflict in the Middle East has been so damaging to global oil transportation.
The number of ships crossing through the strait dramatically declined from an average of 129 in February before the conflict began to very few, if any, ships crossing at all. Iran is attempting to use the strait as leverage against the USA, because the waterway’s role in transporting oil, natural gas and fertiliser, as well as LNG, makes it a vital artery for the world economy.
While the global nature of markets means that most regions will be affected in some form, Asia is particularly exposed. Eighty-three per cent of LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2024. China was the largest single destination, responsible for nearly a third of total LNG volumes passing through the strait in the first half of 2025.
Iranian threats to commercial ships have rendered the strait unpassable, wreaking havoc on oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, peaked at $112 per barrel on March 20. It was around $60 per barrel at the end of 2025.
Recently, Iran rolled back on their announcement that the strait would open for commercial traffic. They say this is because the US blockade of Iranian-linked shipping in the strait has continued.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Facilitating the transport of 4.2 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2023, it became globally important after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, which enabled trade between Asia and Europe.
With only a limited number of key strategic chokepoints globally, the strait has taken on increased importance as a result of the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. For example, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Bab-el Mandeb Strait to ship crude oil to Asian markets.
Situated in a key geopolitical hotspot between Djibouti and Yemen, interlinking the Horn of Africa, the Gulf States, and the Indian subcontinent, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has not been without malign external influences.
During the 1973 Yom Kippur war, the Egyptians coordinated attempts to blockade oil tankers on route to Israel through the strait. This echoes the centrality of controlling key chokepoints in the midst of a war.
Recently, in 2023, Israeli operations in Gaza prompted the Houthis – a Yemen-based military organisation with strong ties to Iran – to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea that they identified as linked to Israel. More than 100 ships were attacked, and traffic fell below half of its normal capacity; it has still not completely recovered.
As strong allies, there are fears that Tehran could lean on the Houthis to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This would add further pressure on the USA and Israel and would be an immense additional blow to the world economy. 25 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supply would be impacted if both straits were blocked, reinforcing how political and military decisions taken by a few can be hugely significant for the entire global economy.
Strait of Malacca
Situated between the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula, the Strait of Malacca forms the shortest sea route between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. This makes it vital for the transport of LNG from the Middle East to East Asia.
In the first half of 2025, around 9.2 billion cubic feet per day of LNG flowed through the strait. A 28 per cent share of this total represented LNG flows from Qatar to China.
Although the strait has faced piracy, its distance from actual and potential flash points in the Middle East means that, as a waterway itself, it can be considered more secure. However, as the Strait of Hormuz makes clear, maritime security is ultimately at the behest of geopolitical power. Power with which China and India, increasing in influence and dominance, may try to exercise.
Cape of Good Hope
Located on the southern tip of South Africa, although not technically a chokepoint due to its openness on one side, the Cape of Good Hope is a significant transit point for LNG shipments around the world. LNG flows around the Cape reached a high of 7.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2024.
It is heavily affected by events surrounding chokepoints in the Middle East because it is an alternative sea route to bypass the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal. Despite adding approximately 15 days to transit from the Arabian Sea to Europe, it is a route that more vessels have been taking as a result of risks in the Middle East.
International maritime law
Despite not being ratified by the US or Iran, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is the fundamental treaty and starting point governing the peaceful use of the world’s oceans and their resources. Part III of the treaty refers to the ‘right of transit passage’. Ships, including those carrying LNG, have the right to pass through straits for international navigation. UNCLOS is explicit in that states bordering straits cannot prevent transit passage despite having sovereignty over their sea.
In terms of the Strait of Hormuz, illegalities are coming to light across a number of fronts. Iran cannot disrupt the routine transit of vessels even during conflict. They cannot charge a toll, either selectively or indiscriminately, to ensure the right of passage. Additionally, they cannot re-route traffic away from established sea lanes and deeper into its territorial waters where it will inspect passing ships. Sea lanes through major straits are established only in consultation with the International Maritime Organisation.
Conversely, the US blockade of Iranian-linked shipping in and around Iranian ports is legal under the law of naval warfare. The blockade of an enemy’s ports is considered legal under the convention.
Although attacking enemy vessels is permitted during a war, Iran has attacked civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Just recently, gunfire was fired at two Indian-flagged ships.
Maritime law appears to take a backseat at the onset of war. As maritime law itself becomes more apparent in these times, the very foundations underpinning law and order become aggressively tested and even re-moulded in times of conflict.
