The Atlantic hurricane season has made an early start this year with Hurricane Beryl wreaking havoc across the Caribbean and the USA
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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season wasted no time this year, erupting with Category 5 Hurricane Beryl weeks before the usual frenzy. This early display has many scratching their heads – what’s causing the shift in hurricane seasonality?
Warm ocean temperatures are a prime suspect. The Atlantic acts as a fuel tank for hurricanes, and this year, sea surface temperatures are exceptionally high, resembling conditions typically seen in mid-August. This extra thermal energy provides a perfect launchpad for storms to form earlier and potentially reach greater intensity.
The La Niña weather pattern following a strong El Nino throws another factor into the mix. This cyclical cooling of the Pacific Ocean weakens wind shear over the Atlantic, allowing storms to organise more efficiently and increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation. The ongoing La Niña strengthens this effect, potentially contributing to an earlier and more active season.
There’s also a trend of pre-season storms forming in May, before the official 1 June start date. While these May storms are uncommon and rarely reach hurricane strength, they highlight a potential lengthening of the hurricane season. The 2024 season saw Tropical Storm Alberto emerge in the Gulf of Mexico in mid-June.
The link between climate change and hurricanes is complex, but evidence suggests a connection. Warmer ocean temperatures, a clear consequence of a warming planet, play a role. Climate change could also alter atmospheric circulation patterns, potentially impacting hurricane formation and tracks. While the precise impact remains an area of active research, the potential for a more active and unpredictable hurricane season due to climate change is a growing concern.
An earlier start to the hurricane season necessitates adjustments in preparedness. Communities need to ensure their hurricane plans are current and readily accessible. Early season activity underscores the importance of not waiting until the peak season (mid-August to late October) to stock up on supplies or finalise evacuation plans.
The geographical distribution of early-season storms is another factor. While the 2024 season has seen activity in both the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the specific areas most at risk can vary from year to year. Staying informed about potential storm tracks and following advisories from National Hurricane Centres is crucial for coastal communities throughout the Atlantic basin.
The science of hurricane prediction is constantly evolving, allowing meteorologists to provide more accurate forecasts with longer lead times. However, there’s still much to learn about the factors influencing hurricane seasonality and how climate change may further impact these powerful storms. Continued research is essential to improve our understanding and enhance our ability to prepare for the threats they pose.
Additionally, the human cost of these early storms can be significant. The destruction left by Hurricane Beryl serves as a tragic reminder of the importance of preparedness. Investing in stronger infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable coastal communities, can help mitigate the damage caused by these powerful storms.
Hurricane Beryl caused widespread damage across the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean, with at least 17 people killed – 10 in the Caribbean and seven in the Houston, Texas area. In the US, the cost is estimated to be as high as $32 billion, with heavy rain and flooding as far north as Vermont. Costs are not as detailed in Mexico and the Caribbean but could be as high as $600 million
This early start to the 2024 hurricane season serves as a stark reminder of the need for vigilance. By understanding the factors influencing early activity, coupled with ongoing preparedness efforts, we can better navigate the challenges posed by a changing hurricane season.
