Tim Marshall addresses the Turkish leader Tayyip Erdoğan and his upcoming third term in office
Geopolitical Hotspot by Tim Marshall
Dear El Presidente,
Yes, I know that’s how we referred to Latin American dictators in the ’70s, but you’re increasingly behaving like one. Now that you’ve secured your third term, in a position limited to two terms, perhaps you could be more President, less Perón.
We could then overlook the amendment to the constitution that allowed you to run for office for only the ‘second time’. It’s unsettling that you’ve been in power for 20 years – three times as prime minister and then president (after changing the role from being ceremonial to all-powerful), but May’s vote was mostly free, even if the media wasn’t.
But now there’s a chance to, shall we say, course correct the trajectory of Turkish democracy away from full-blown authoritarianism and back towards a pluralistic social and political culture. Perhaps some of the 150,000 people removed from their jobs after the 2016 coup attempt against you could be reinstated? The 4,500 judges who were sacked could play a role in society; the 6,000 academics summarily dismissed could return to campus; the 300 journalists arrested could start writing again; and the 180 or so media outlets that were closed could reopen. Political prisoners might benefit from seeing daylight, after all, with inflation at 44 per cent, it’s all hands to the pump. A better distinction between the fifth of your 81 million population who are Kurds and the armed groups among them would be helpful.
Speaking of El Presidente. Your speeches – maybe they could be shorter? You’re only halfway to Castro’s average of four hours, but less can be more. Also, maybe lose phrases such as ‘leftovers of the sword’. We know it’s a common insult for Christian minorities such as Armenians and Greeks who survived the Ottoman and Turkish massacres. It’s really not helpful. Some stuff should be easy. You won! Why be sarcastic about your opponent. Surely you could rein in the use of language such as ‘deviants’ some of your senior politicians use to describe gay people?
Part of your victorious re-re-election strategy was taking a tough line on refugees. You’ll be accelerating the return of 3.5 million Syrians. For years, Turkey has been incredibly generous in its hospitality, but this is coming to an end. You know that many Syrians won’t want to return to the embrace of El Presidente Assad and may head west. It would be helpful if we can discuss this calmly and without threats of ‘opening the gates’.
We understand that you believe in Turkish exceptionalism, the rebirth of a sleeping giant, and that you’re the leader of what is the heir to the Ottoman Empire. But we’re supposed to be friends, nay, allies! We’re all in NATO together, so maybe you could agree with the other 30 members who all want Sweden to join and drop your veto in time for the Vilnius summit in July.
Sabre rattling with fellow NATO member Greece doesn’t help either, and it’s beyond time to find an equitable solution to your occupation of northern Cyprus; it has been almost 50 years. Your AK party once had a good foreign policy motto: ‘Zero problems with neighbours’. Oh, and it would help if you stopped buying air defence systems from Russia.
Please keep doing the good stuff. Brokering the deal between Ukraine and Russia to allow grain shipments helped reduce the effects of a global food crisis. If you can use your good offices to bring about a settlement to the Ukraine war, that would be great.
Your geographic position means you influence Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, parts of Europe and the Mediterranean. The multi-polar world encourages you to be a regional hegemon and we get that. We won’t always agree, but we can understand why your troops are fighting in Syria, Iraq and Libya – all part of the old Ottoman Empire – and your diplomats are spreading out across the world, notably in Africa, Central Asia and the Balkans.
Your country has always been at a geographic crossroads, but now you’re at a political one. You revere the great 19th-century sultan Abdulhamid II for holding the line against the West, but now is not the time for a sultan, nor a presidente. It’s possible to be a democrat and a regional power, to be part of an alliance and have an independent foreign policy, and to face serious domestic challenges, including terrorism, without travelling the road towards dictatorship.
You once said ‘Democracy is like a tram. You ride it until you arrive at your destination, then you step off’. That isn’t just wrong – it’s the language of an El Presidente.
