Discover some of the major countries in the world with low birth rates – from Japan to Ukraine – and exactly why their rates are falling
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While the world may be on the brink of an all-time population peak – with an estimated 10 billion people on the planet by the mid-2080s – this boom is not projected to last. After the uptick has petered out, for the first time in more than seven centuries the world’s population is projected to take a dramatic plunge.
Some countries are expected to lose more than one fifth of their population within the next three decades, and 40-50 per cent by the end of the century, a scenario that would fundamentally reshape economies, infrastructures and ways of life.
One of the main factors causing such a drop is declining birth rates, of which many countries in the world are already experiencing.
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So, where exactly in the world are birth rates falling? Here are some of the major countries with the lowest birth rate (per 1,000 people in the population) in reverse order:
Bermuda – 7.170
At number ten is Bermuda, whose population fell to a 20-year low back in 2022.
Factors including the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic along with migration of residents to the UK are both purported to explain why the population has taken a steep dip.
Predictions suggest that Bermuda’s current working population will no longer be able to support the country’s economy in the future if changes are not made to bring birth rates back up.
Singapore – 7.102
The low birth rate in Singapore can be explained by a web of factors: financial costs of raising a child, societal pressures to appear as a ‘perfect’ parent along with a difficulty in managing career and family commitments.
To boost the country’s low birth rates, policies are being considered such as lowering childcare fee caps and increasing government-paid paternity leave to four weeks. Flexible working arrangements are also being explored so new parents can better manage a work-home life balance, as well as family-friendly office areas such as pods designated for breastfeeding.
Andorra – 7.025
One of the smallest countries in Europe, Andorra has been marred by low birth rates combined with an aging population. Between 2009 and 2015, the country’s population fell from more than 85,000 to 70,473 – and in 2015 alone, shrunk the fastest out of any other country in the world.
While immigration may seem a sensible answer to counteracting this issue – especially since Andorra has a profitable tourism industry – the government is highly selective of who it selects as new residents due to an already-high ratio of foreigners to nationals, coupled with its status as a tax haven.
Italy – 6.882
Italy has the oldest citizens in Europe, with an average age of 48.4 years. Coupled with some of the lowest birth rates on the continent – down by 32.4 per cent since 2008 – the Italian government has been attempting to curb this trend by implementing measures to support large families. These include exemption from social security contributions for mothers in full-time work with three or more children, monthly payments of up to €175 per child, along with better parental leave.
The main reason for dwindling birth rates in the country is financial: a family apartment in the country would cost roughly half the average monthly income to rent, meaning couples may struggle to make ends meet when raising a family.
Japan – 6.653
For eight consecutive years, Japan’s birth rate has been plummeting and is one of the lowest in the world. Last year, 758,631 babies were born – a decline of 5.1 per cent from the previous year. It is projected that Japan’s population will fall to 77 million by the end of the century, from its current 124 million if the trend is not reversed.
Reasons for its low birth rate include economic instability, a rise in working cultures that are incompatible with both parents in full-time jobs, as well as the number of marriages in the country falling too: down to less than half a million in 2023 for the first time in 90 years. In the country, births outside of marriage are rare and so such a stark drop in numbers would likely affect birth rate.
Over the next three years, the Japanese government is expected to spend $23 billion per year on revising laws to offer better financial support for expectant and current parents, in the form of more appealing parental leave options and greater access to child care.
San Marino – 5.915
San Marino is one of the smallest countries in the world, with an area of just more than 61 square kilometres, and also faces an shrinking population despite having one of the highest life expectancies in the world (84.6 years). More young people are choosing to delay starting families, or have fewer children, a decision which has far-reaching implications for the country’s economy, healthcare services and pension systems.
As well as this, many residents are migrating away from the country for better work and education opportunities elsewhere, furthering the drop in population.
It is projected the San Marino’s population will start to decline by 2050 in a similar trend to other EU countries.
Ukraine – 5.753
Following the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, birth rate in Ukraine has declined by 28 per cent. But even before the war, Ukraine had one of the lowest birth rates in the world – for the last three decades, its birth rate has remained below that prime goal of 2.1, and in 2021 it was just 1.16.
One reason for its low birth rate is that in Ukraine, there is a general preference among families to only have one child. Fears over political and social uncertainty, combined with rising costs of living and expenses have also meant more couples are deciding not to have children.
As well as this, many Ukrainians have fled the country – an estimated six million – and as the war continues it is likely many will not return, further exacerbating the decline in population caused by low birth rates.
South Korea – 5.618
Several factors combine to make South Korea’s birth rate so low: high costs of living in the country, as well as demanding workplace hours and insufficient wages. Increasingly, changing attitudes toward having children have also driven down the number of births in the country.
The country has implemented countless methods to try to revitalise birth rates – including paid paternity leave, ‘baby vouchers’ to parents and campaigns – with more than $200 billion spent in the last 16 years on such measures. Still, birth rates are not making it above the 2.1 threshold.
Unless changes are made, South Korea’s population could dwindle from 51.7 million to just 22 million by the end of the century. And in just fifty years, nearly half the population will be older than 65, a scenario determined as a ‘national emergency’ by politicians.
Immigration could be a helpful tool to tackle the potential dilemma, but fundamental shifts in attitudes toward welcoming migrants will need to occur first before such a measure would be able to feasibly work.
Hong Kong – 5.427
Last year, Hong Kong recorded just 33,200 births out of its 7.5 million strong population. So low are its figures that projections anticipate 26 per cent of the population will be aged 65 and above by 2040.
A sharp decline in prioritising marriage and raising a family – thanks to the rise in young women making inroads in educational and workforce spheres – along with high costs of schooling and tutoring for children, are all factors contributing to the country’s low birth rate.
Measures such as one-off bonuses to new parents have been brought in to incentivise a boost to its population, although these have been criticised for being insubstantial: the money offered is only slightly more than half of the city’s average monthly household income.
