Earth crosses key warming threshold of having a global average surface temperature 2°C above preindustrial levels
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You might not have known it, but last Friday 17 November and Saturday 18 November you were witness to a key moment in climatic history. And it wasn’t just you who was caught up in this event but every single person, animal and plant on this planet.
It was over these days that meteorologists from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) believe that for the first time our planet, very briefly, crossed a key warming threshold of having a global average surface temperature 2°C above preindustrial levels.
This news follows on from other key climate events that indicate that 2023 is on track to be the hottest on record globally with every month since May breaking global temperature records.
This record follows a statement from António Guterres, the secretary general of the UN, that the world is heading for a ‘hellish future’ after the UN Environment Programe (Unep) reported that average global temperatures could rise by 3°C above preindustrial levels this century. The report goes on to say that if we are to meet our Paris Agreement targets of limiting global average temperature rises to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2030 then the world needs to cut its global emissions by a massive 42 per cent by 2030.
And, all of this comes just days before the start of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, which begins on 30 November and aims to take stock of how likely we are to meet our Paris Agreement commitments towards tackling climate change. This year’s COP28 summit will also try to flesh out the details agreed last year in Egypt to create a fund to pay out to developing countries for the losses they’re suffering due t climate change.
But, with so much at stake and different political ambitions at play there will likely be much negotiation as nations pull in different ways. Here’s what some nations are likely to want to get out of the summit.
The USA is one of the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. They will be calling for a halt in the construction of new coal-fired power plants and the USA also supports the tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030. The US would also like more countries to tackle other greenhouse gas emissions.
Alongside the USA, China is one of the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. The Chinese are calling for richer countries (among which it doesn’t place itself) to contribute more money to help developing countries adapt to a changing climate and meet their climate targets.
The EU wants to see a significant increase in the use of renewable energy and a phasing out of fossil fuels.
COP28 hosts, the United Arab Emirates, is an oil-producing country and, perhaps naturally, has been non-committal about a phase-out of fossil fuels. But, the UAE are supporters of increasing global renewable energy capacity.
Saudi Arabia is, of course, hugely reliant on its oil industry and they are pushing for a phase-out of greenhouse gases but not a phase-out of fossil fuels. The stance might sound contradictory, but the Saudis want to use developing technology to capture greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately for them and the planet, this technology is not yet available at the required scale.
COP28 will take place between 30 November and 12 December 2023.
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