Geopolitical Hotspot
Tim Marshall discusses France’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over disputed territory of Western Sahara
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If there were a competition for a ‘far away conflict about which we know little’, Western Sahara would be a potential winner. That’s despite developments this summer that have made headline news in Morocco, France and Algeria.
France has effectively recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. This is a historic diplomatic shift for Paris, a major victory for Rabat and a blow for Algiers, which promptly withdrew its ambassador to France in protest. Algeria and Morocco severed diplomatic relations over the issue in 2021.
The Western Sahara is bounded by the Atlantic Ocean, Mauritania, Algeria and Morocco. In 1956, Morocco won independence from France and claimed the region, as did Mauritania. Spanish troops repelled several Moroccan incursions before leaving the territory in 1975, at which point, Morocco invaded and annexed it.
The indigenous Sahrawi people, led by the Polisario Front, declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in part of the territory and began a long insurgency for independence, with Algeria as its main sponsor. The Front declared a ceasefire in 1991 but returned to armed struggle after ‘provocations’ in 2020. By then, Morocco had already built a heavily mined, 2,735-kilometre-long sand berm with fortifications separating the Moroccan-administered western portion from the SADR, which Rabat says can have limited autonomy.
This summer, in a letter to Morocco’s King Mohammed VI, President Macron wrote that ‘the present and future of Western Sahara fall within the context of Moroccan sovereignty’. This is de facto recognition that Western Sahara is Moroccan and puts France at odds with the position of the UN and EU, which say sovereignty should be determined via a referendum. The Polisario Front, which is headquartered in Algeria, vowed it would continue to fight the ‘Moroccan aggressor’, while Algeria called Morocco and France ‘colonial powers, new and old’.
France is eying Western Sahara’s phosphate reserves, which are among the world’s largest. It also has as yet unproven offshore oil and gas resources and a 1,110-kilometre coastline rich in fish. France is also interested in investing in Morocco’s ambitious Atlantic Initiative, which aims to offer landlocked Sahelian countries trade access to the ocean via Western Sahara.
The region is slightly bigger than the UK but has a population of 632,000. There are no rivers or lakes, and arable land makes up just 0.02 per cent of the 270,000 square kilometres of the low, flat, desert territory.
However, there’s more to France’s decision than economics. With the Sahel awash with terrorist groups, coup d’états and pro-Russia and -Iran military juntas, Morocco is considered a reliable partner for Western countries to retain influence in the Maghreb and Sahel.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iranian and Hezbollah agents, and Russia’s Africa Corp (formerly Wagner Group), operate in the Tindouf refugee camp in Algeria. The camp, which lies on the border with Morocco, houses about 175,000 Sahrawis. The Polisario Front has also long been supported by Iran – a major factor in Rabat breaking diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2018. When Morocco signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2021, the Front became even more useful to Iran in its efforts to destabilise the region.
The USA had brokered the accords, and part of the deal was that Washington would recognise Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Israel, Spain and a handful of African countries followed suit — and now France. It was a tough decision. Algeria supplies roughly 14 per cent of the EU’s natural gas and has reserves of important minerals. As with Morocco, it’s used as a staging post for African migrants trying to reach Europe, and thus, cooperation is required with Algiers. France has weighed this up and gone with Morocco, partially driven by its dwindling influence in the Sahel after recently being kicked out of Mali, Burkina Faso and, this year, from Niger.
France is looking to close a security loophole in the Sahel/Maghreb region. This gives it options and, after a frosty few years, a much warmer relationship with Morocco. It also brings economic opportunities. Morocco bags a huge diplomatic win and hopes this unlocks the door to many more European countries following suit. In the corridors of power, the wants and needs of the Sahrawi people come a distant second to these geopolitical considerations.
