Tim Marshall looks to the Indian elections, in which more than 900 million people are eligible to vote
Geopolitical Hotspot
India’s national elections, which begin next month, should see the consolidation of the ruling Hindu nationalist party’s far-reaching project to change the character of the country. During his first two terms in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) have successfully mixed politics with religion, captured the imagination of the majority Hindu population and undermined India’s secular roots.
Modi and the BJP first came to power in 2014, winning 282 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha (parliament), the largest majority for a single party in 30 years. In 2019, they broke out of the confines of the ‘Hindi Belt’ in northern India, winning states across the country and a second term, this time with 303 seats. Its coalition government commanded 353 seats.
All the polls point to a third term. If so, 73-year-old Modi is likely to continue with Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) rhetoric and action, which critics say has resulted in the widespread persecution of the country’s Muslim minority. On the campaign trail, he has made repeated mention of a Hindu tailor murdered by Muslim extremists, played on fears of forced conversion of Hindus to Islam, and, in January, went to the holy city of Ayodhya to open an extremely controversial grand temple dedicated to the deity Lord Ram.
The Ram Mandir temple is on the site of a mosque destroyed by a Hindu mob in 1992, an act that outraged India’s 200 million Muslim citizens. Lord Ram is revered by Hindus, many of whom keep idols of him in their homes. The festival of Diwali includes tales of Ram extolling the virtues of truth and ethics. Modi’s visit was seen by many as a bid to mobilise the Hindu nationalist vote. Most opposition leaders, Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and others, boycotted the opening on the grounds that senior political figures in a diverse and constitutionally secular state shouldn’t attend. Nevertheless, in a poll, 42 per cent of people approved of Modi’s decision.
In the decade since Modi came to power, violence targeting Muslims has risen year-on-year, many of them committed by ‘cow vigilante groups’ attacking people suspected of eating beef, which is considered sacrilegious by many Hindus. Members of the ‘lower caste’ Dalit community (formerly known as ‘untouchables’), who eat beef as a staple, have also been targeted. Modi has condemned the attacks, which have resulted in several deaths, saying ‘killing people in the name of cow worship is not acceptable’. However, on his watch, the idea that Hindus, not Muslims, are being systematically oppressed has been allowed to take hold.
The BJP has been accused of presiding over a rise in media censorship, bullying of courts and using state agencies to pursue political opponents. The party denies these accusations, although it’s a matter of record that the country’s financial investigation agency has gone after many leading opposition members and has dropped charges when some have switched their allegiance to the BJP.
Nevertheless, Modi remains popular, even among many non-BJP voters. He’s seen as having put India on the global stage, which plays well in a country that regards itself as one of the world’s great civilisations. Last year’s G20 summit in New Delhi was something of a coming-out party, and during it, the icing on the cake was becoming the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the Moon’s south pole.
That’s partially why, despite high unemployment, especially among younger people, Modi has an impressive 78 per cent job approval rating, according to a Morning Consult survey conducted a few weeks ago. Disarray within the opposition parties further enhances his chances of a third term. Last year, 24 of them came together to take on the BJP. However, beset by ideological differences and personality clashes, the INDIA alliance, led by the once-dominant Congress party, is falling apart, with parties insisting on fielding candidates instead of standing aside, thus risking a split of the anti-BJP vote.
The BJP has spent the past five years subsidising housing and cooking gas for lower-income households amid tax breaks for the same income band. It has also courted the ‘lower castes’ vote, which may be as high as 40 per cent of the 900 million registered voters.
At least 600 million of them will be choosing from more than 400 parties and will vote at one of the one million polling stations. Ten million officials will oversee the world’s biggest election, travelling across the country by road and rail, and sometimes even by elephant.
At the end of May it’s probable that Modi and the BJP will continue in government. However, how long India’s secular foundations remain in place is open to question.
