Tim Marshall takes a look at China and President Xi Jinping’s third term in government
Geopolitical Hotspot
Apparently, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was a great success. How do we know this? Because President Xi Jinping, elected for the third of his two terms (no, that’s not a typo), told us that it was. It was certainly a great success for Xi.
In the lead-up to the congress, some China watchers predicted that key figures in the Politburo who opposed Xi would retain their seats. They hadn’t reckoned with the extent to which he has gripped all the levers of power in the country.
Xi laid the ground carefully. After the savagery and cult of personality of the Mao era, the congress moved to ensure that the president was only ‘first among equals’. Time in office for the leader was restricted to two five-year terms, and Xi’s two most recent predecessors, Hu Jintao, and Jiang Zemin, both stood down after ten years. But 69-year-old Xi changed the rules.
He has also changed the Politburo. Out went anyone opposed to him; in came a raft of loyalists. As the state news agency Xinhua put it: ‘Greeted by rapturous rounds of applause, Xi led Le Qiang, Zhao Leji , Wang, Huning, Cai Qi, Deng Xuexiang, and Li Xi onto the red-carpeted stage at the Great Hall of the People.’ Of these, Li Qiang (also known as Chang) perhaps best symbolises what has taken place.
At the conclusion of the congress, the first person to emerge onto the stage behind the president is the second-ranking person in the elite seven-man Politburo Standing Committee and is, or will be, the prime minister. To most people’s surprise, that man was Li Qiang, and he will be anointed in March. The Communist party boss of Shanghai has been catapulted into the job despite never having served as vice premier, nor has he experience in leading one of the poorer Chinese provinces, which are the usual prerequisites.
But he has other qualifications – primarily, doing what Xi tells him to. Recently this has included enforcing the brutal and deeply unpopular Covid lockdown of Shanghai. Xi insists on a ‘zero-Covid’ strategy despite the damage this is doing to an already struggling economy. But that’s the point. Li Qiang, like the other five Standing Committee members, is there to say ‘yes’.
He could say ‘no’, but the public humiliation of Hu Jintao at the congress shows what would happen. Hu may indeed have been ill, but congress is 100 per cent controlled – no spontaneity is permitted – and the former president was led from the stage just a few minutes after the TV cameras were allowed in.
The congress was attended by 2,300 delegates. They appointed 200 members to the Central Committee, from which the 25-member Politburo is drawn, and from that, the seven-man (it’s always men) Standing Committee emerges. Xi has ensured that the top two tiers of government are packed with his choices. This means that the politicians who opposed his economic policies are now gone. They wanted an export-led approach, with the wealthy coastal cities playing the leading role. Xi wants to continue supporting local production and encourage mass domestic consumption. The dangers of this strategy are apparent in rows of brand-new empty high-rise apartment blocks being demolished due to a lack of buyers. Growth has slowed, the Belt and Road Initiative is faltering, and the country has an ageing population.
Xi, and indeed most politicians, support boosting high-tech innovation and taking on global markets. China has been growing its production of semiconductor chips but knows that they aren’t of the high quality the foreign market requires. The USA has now dealt it a potentially devastating blow, using export controls to completely cut China off from making or buying components for supercomputers. This could set Chinese tech companies back a decade in what is one of the most important industries of the 21st century.
This is the backdrop to an era in which a Chinese leader has more power than at any time since Mao. Xi has removed the checks and balances that could help prevent the type of catastrophic decision made by Vladimir Putin when he invaded Ukraine. This means a continuation of current economic and Covid policies, and, if Xi decides to move militarily against Taiwan, little chance of him being talked out of it. At the congress, he refused to rule out force to bring the island under Beijing’s control. Still, Russia’s dismal military performance, the effectiveness of American weapons and the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Moscow may give him pause for thought.
On the international stage, there are still foreign politicians who will say no to Xi, but on the stage of the Great Hall of the People, it’s the Xi way or the highway.
